tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Raleigh/Durham via New York: arrives on time 15%

  1. 15:22 MIA → 18:29 LGA
    AA 2945 · American · 3h 07m · 48% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:23 LGA → 21:12 RDU
    AA 2969 · American · 1h 49m · 37% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip5h 50mMIA 15:22 to RDU 21:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.