tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 22%

  1. 15:22 MIA → 18:29 LGA
    AA 2945 · American · 3h 07m · 48% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 LGA → 21:35 ORD
    AA 3318 · American · 3h 10m · 59% on time, 15.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (15.4% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 13mMIA 15:22 to ORD 21:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.