tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Wilmington via New York: arrives on time 39%

  1. 15:22 MIA → 18:29 LGA
    AA 2945 · American · 3h 07m · 48% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 LGA → 22:01 ILM
    AA 4792 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 02m · 71% on time, 8.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (8.9% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 39mMIA 15:22 to ILM 22:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.