tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 19%

  1. 17:38 PHL → 20:25 DFW
    AA 2947 · American · 3h 47m · 55% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:19 DFW → 22:37 XNA
    AA 3059 · American · 1h 18m · 52% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 59mPHL 17:38 to XNA 22:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.