tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → St Louis via Charlotte: arrives on time 50%

  1. 20:22 IAD → 21:55 CLT
    AA 2953 · American · 1h 33m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:55 CLT → 23:57 STL
    AA 459 · American · 2h 02m · 75% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 35mIAD 20:22 to STL 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.