tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Raleigh/Durham via Charlotte: arrives on time 51%

  1. 20:22 IAD → 21:55 CLT
    AA 2953 · American · 1h 33m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:57 CLT → 23:58 RDU
    AA 494 · American · 1h 01m · 74% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 3h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip3h 36mIAD 20:22 to RDU 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.