tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Louisville via Charlotte: arrives on time 53%

  1. 20:22 IAD → 21:55 CLT
    AA 2953 · American · 1h 33m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:02 CLT → 00:31 SDF +1 day
    AA 671 · American · 1h 30m · 73% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 10mIAD 20:22 to SDF 00:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.