tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Harrisburg via Charlotte: arrives on time 40%

  1. 20:22 IAD → 21:55 CLT
    AA 2953 · American · 1h 33m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 CLT → 00:25 MDT +1 day
    AA 5217 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 40m · 66% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 03mIAD 20:22 to MDT 00:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.