tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tampa via Philadelphia: arrives on time 71%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 08:05 PHL
    AA 2970 · American · 2h 05m · 90% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:53 PHL → 11:40 TPA
    AA 2822 · American · 2h 47m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip5h 40mORD 05:00 to TPA 11:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.