tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Providence via Philadelphia: arrives on time 66%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 08:05 PHL
    AA 2970 · American · 2h 05m · 90% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:55 PHL → 10:13 PVD
    AA 5138 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 18m · 85% on time, 10.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (10.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip4h 13mORD 05:00 to PVD 10:13, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.