tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Des Moines via Philadelphia: arrives on time 75%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 08:05 PHL
    AA 2970 · American · 2h 05m · 90% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 30m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 PHL → 12:34 DSM
    AA 5165 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 59m · 85% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 105 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 30m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip7h 34mORD 05:00 to DSM 12:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.