tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Memphis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 65%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 08:05 PHL
    AA 2970 · American · 2h 05m · 90% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:56 PHL → 10:45 MEM
    AA 5277 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 49m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 45mORD 05:00 to MEM 10:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.