tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Minneapolis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 80%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 08:05 PHL
    AA 2970 · American · 2h 05m · 90% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 35m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:40 PHL → 12:38 MSP
    AA 5658 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 58m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 35m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 38mORD 05:00 to MSP 12:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.