tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Richmond via Philadelphia: arrives on time 78%

  1. 05:00 ORD → 08:05 PHL
    AA 2970 · American · 2h 05m · 90% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:03 PHL → 10:27 RIC
    AA 5846 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 24m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip4h 27mORD 05:00 to RIC 10:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.