tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Asheville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 16:10 DFW → 20:53 PHL
    AA 2973 · American · 3h 43m · 62% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHL → 23:58 AVL
    AA 6093 · American, flown by Piedmont · 2h 08m · 76% on time, 13.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (13.8% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 48mDFW 16:10 to AVL 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.