tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 23:07 PDX → 05:07 ORD
    AA 2977 · American · 3h 59m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 05:58 ORD → 09:15 DCA +1 day
    AA 4339 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 17m · 84% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 08mPDX 23:07 to DCA 09:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.