tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Los Angeles via Phoenix: arrives on time 48%

  1. 17:40 MIA → 19:28 PHX
    AA 2982 · American · 4h 48m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHX → 22:07 LAX
    AA 3204 · American · 1h 29m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip7h 27mMIA 17:40 to LAX 22:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.