tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:40 MIA → 19:28 PHX
    AA 2982 · American · 4h 48m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:23 PHX → 22:23 SFO
    AA 686 · American · 2h 00m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip7h 43mMIA 17:40 to SFO 22:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.