tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Miami via Atlanta: arrives on time 19%

  1. 15:30 PHL → 17:51 ATL
    AA 2983 · American · 2h 21m · 62% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 ATL → 21:00 MIA
    AA 1367 · American · 2h 05m · 30% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (30%).
Total trip5h 35mPHL 15:30 to MIA 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.