tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Charlotte via Atlanta: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:30 PHL → 17:51 ATL
    AA 2983 · American · 2h 21m · 62% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 ATL → 20:23 CLT
    AA 5040 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 34m · 49% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip4h 49mPHL 15:30 to CLT 20:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.