tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 80%

  1. 15:31 PDX → 18:12 PHX
    AA 2986 · American · 2h 41m · 60% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 38m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHX → 05:47 JFK +1 day
    AA 1587 · American · 4h 57m · 87% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 11h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 173 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 38m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip11h 16mPDX 15:31 to JFK 05:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.