tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Tucson via Phoenix: arrives on time 36%

  1. 15:31 PDX → 18:12 PHX
    AA 2986 · American · 2h 41m · 60% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:07 PHX → 20:01 TUS
    AA 6370 · American, flown by SkyWest · 54m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 30mPDX 15:31 to TUS 20:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.