tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Philadelphia via Tampa: arrives on time 22%

  1. 15:41 MIA → 16:53 TPA
    AA 2987 · American · 1h 12m · 49% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 TPA → 20:40 PHL
    AA 2900 · American · 2h 44m · 49% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip4h 59mMIA 15:41 to PHL 20:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.