tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → New Orleans via Miami: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:33 TPA → 18:45 MIA
    AA 2987 · American · 1h 12m · 46% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 MIA → 21:21 MSY
    AA 2196 · American · 2h 06m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 48mTPA 17:33 to MSY 21:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.