tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → San Diego via Miami: arrives on time 24%

  1. 17:33 TPA → 18:45 MIA
    AA 2987 · American · 1h 12m · 46% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:12 MIA → 22:38 SAN
    AA 2463 · American · 5h 26m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip8h 05mTPA 17:33 to SAN 22:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.