tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Houston via Miami: arrives on time 26%

  1. 17:33 TPA → 18:45 MIA
    AA 2987 · American · 1h 12m · 46% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:42 MIA → 21:33 IAH
    AA 2541 · American · 2h 51m · 65% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 00mTPA 17:33 to IAH 21:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.