tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Austin via Miami: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:33 TPA → 18:45 MIA
    AA 2987 · American · 1h 12m · 46% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:40 MIA → 21:45 AUS
    AA 2629 · American · 3h 05m · 73% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 12mTPA 17:33 to AUS 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.