tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tampa via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 16%

  1. 16:51 ORD → 19:28 DFW
    AA 2988 · American · 2h 37m · 46% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 DFW → 23:59 TPA
    AA 2256 · American · 2h 29m · 37% on time, 8.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (8.9% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip6h 08mORD 16:51 to TPA 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.