tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Dayton via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 16:51 ORD → 19:28 DFW
    AA 2988 · American · 2h 37m · 46% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:18 DFW → 23:50 DAY
    AA 5245 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 31m · 64% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 58mORD 16:51 to DAY 23:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.