tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 80%

  1. 23:44 ANC → 06:22 PHX
    AA 2991 · American · 5h 38m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:17 PHX → 17:29 JFK +1 day
    AA 2689 · American · 5h 13m · 86% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 13h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 55m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip13h 46mANC 23:44 to JFK 17:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.