tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → Seattle via Phoenix: arrives on time 56%

  1. 23:44 ANC → 06:22 PHX
    AA 2991 · American · 5h 38m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:20 PHX → 10:36 SEA +1 day
    AA 3793 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 16m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip9h 52mANC 23:44 to SEA 10:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.