tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 23%

  1. 23:44 ANC → 06:22 PHX
    AA 2991 · American · 5h 38m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:16 PHX → 09:38 SFO +1 day
    AA 4911 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 22m · 39% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip8h 54mANC 23:44 to SFO 09:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.