tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 72%

  1. 05:14 PHX → 11:00 ORD
    AA 3008 · American · 3h 46m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:56 ORD → 13:47 MEM
    AA 3675 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 51m · 84% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 33mPHX 05:14 to MEM 13:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.