tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Madison via Charlotte: arrives on time 61%

  1. 05:00 PHX → 12:09 CLT
    AA 3009 · American · 4h 09m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 11m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:20 CLT → 15:39 MSN
    AA 5307 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 86 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 11m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip8h 39mPHX 05:00 to MSN 15:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.