tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 41%

  1. 18:13 ATL → 19:25 PHX
    AA 3012 · American · 4h 12m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHX → 22:25 RNO
    AA 1765 · American · 1h 47m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 12mATL 18:13 to RNO 22:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.