tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Sacramento via Phoenix: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:13 ATL → 19:25 PHX
    AA 3012 · American · 4h 12m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:48 PHX → 22:42 SMF
    AA 2048 · American · 1h 54m · 68% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 29mATL 18:13 to SMF 22:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.