tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → New Orleans via Miami: arrives on time 47%

  1. 10:40 LAX → 19:00 MIA
    AA 3016 · American · 5h 20m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 MIA → 21:21 MSY
    AA 2196 · American · 2h 06m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip8h 41mLAX 10:40 to MSY 21:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.