tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sarasota/Bradenton via Miami: arrives on time 78%

  1. 15:30 LGA → 19:06 MIA
    AA 3017 · American · 3h 36m · 72% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 48m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:54 MIA → 23:59 SRQ
    AA 4071 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 05m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 183 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 48m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip8h 29mLGA 15:30 to SRQ 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.