tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Salt Lake City via Phoenix: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:47 RDU → 19:19 PHX
    AA 3033 · American · 4h 32m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 PHX → 23:03 SLC
    AA 4921 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 16mRDU 17:47 to SLC 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.