tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Wilmington via New York: arrives on time 44%

  1. 15:03 ORD → 18:20 LGA
    AA 3050 · American · 2h 20m · 65% on time, 13.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 39m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 LGA → 22:01 ILM
    AA 4792 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 02m · 71% on time, 8.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 54 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 39m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (13.6% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (8.9% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 58mORD 15:03 to ILM 22:01, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.