tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Detroit via New York: arrives on time 31%

  1. 09:30 DFW → 13:59 LGA
    AA 3053 · American · 3h 29m · 59% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:45 LGA → 16:52 DTW
    AA 4630 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 05m · 79% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 20mDFW 09:30 to DTW 16:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.