tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:00 MIA → 19:53 ORD
    AA 3056 · American · 3h 53m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 ORD → 22:54 LAS
    AA 1465 · American · 3h 55m · 48% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip8h 54mMIA 17:00 to LAS 22:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.