tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:00 MIA → 19:53 ORD
    AA 3056 · American · 3h 53m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:56 ORD → 23:59 RDU
    AA 2167 · American · 2h 03m · 58% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 59mMIA 17:00 to RDU 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.