tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Los Angeles via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:00 MIA → 19:53 ORD
    AA 3056 · American · 3h 53m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 ORD → 23:13 LAX
    AA 613 · American · 4h 24m · 51% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 9h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip9h 13mMIA 17:00 to LAX 23:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.