tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 17:00 MIA → 19:53 ORD
    AA 3056 · American · 3h 53m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ORD → 23:59 BWI
    AA 3866 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 59m · 59% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 59mMIA 17:00 to BWI 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.