tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 73%

  1. 23:10 SMF → 05:36 ORD
    AA 3060 · American · 4h 23m · 94% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:44 ORD → 10:02 EWR +1 day
    AA 3170 · American · 2h 18m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 52mSMF 23:10 to EWR 10:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.