tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 55%

  1. 07:39 PHL → 09:08 ORD
    AA 3074 · American · 2h 28m · 82% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:00 ORD → 11:36 BNA
    AA 1650 · American · 1h 37m · 78% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 58mPHL 07:39 to BNA 11:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.