tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 80%

  1. 07:39 PHL → 09:08 ORD
    AA 3074 · American · 2h 28m · 82% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 24m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:32 ORD → 13:55 STL
    AA 3815 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 23m · 86% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 159 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 24m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip7h 16mPHL 07:39 to STL 13:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.