tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → San Jose via Phoenix: arrives on time 51%

  1. 07:28 BNA → 09:13 PHX
    AA 3086 · American · 3h 45m · 81% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:04 PHX → 11:59 SJC
    AA 3325 · American · 1h 55m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 31mBNA 07:28 to SJC 11:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.