tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Wilmington via New York: arrives on time 30%

  1. 10:30 DFW → 15:03 LGA
    AA 3088 · American · 3h 33m · 53% on time, 6.5% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:56 LGA → 18:02 ILM
    AA 4429 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 07m · 70% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (6.5% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 33mDFW 10:30 to ILM 18:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.